EU-Russia stand-off plays into NATO hands (Andry Yermolayev)

Contemporary geopolitical crises echo global and institutional ones. It would be a simplification to reduce them to Russia-West confrontation. Simultaneously, a confrontation with Russia might rehabilitate the idea of a united Europe which is now in decline, political expert and Director of Sofia Center for Sociological Research Andry Yermolayev told ZIK Aug. 26. 

According to Yermolayev, geopolitical crises are echoes of the global financial, economic, institutional and spiritual crisis going on in the world. To reduce everything to the Russia-West stand-off is a gross simplification and myth which is cultivated now. In fact, the mechanisms that ensured the world’s economic stability over the past 30-40 years do not work any longer. By fueling political and military confrontation, various global power centers are trying to shun the responsibility for the global financial crisis. Yermolayev believes that the recent developments indicate the West’s intent to toss the hot potato to Russia and China and thus avoid the negative fall-out from the world economic recession.

Russia, Yermolayev says, is after a monopoly in the area of fuel and communications. It is eager to set up a sanitary border that would guard her influence in the region. The big question is whether the Caucasian conflict will grow into a stand-off between the EU and Russia. Paradoxically, the stand-off would allow to revitalize NATO and the idea of a united Euroatlantic community which is now having a hard time due to the intensification of integration processes in Europe. The stand-off with Russia may beef up the idea.

A. Yermolayev believes the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West won’t accelerate Ukraine’s accession to NATO. NATO will use such countries as Georgia and Ukraine to farther its interests eastwards. On the other hand, new conflict-ridden members will hardly strengthen the alliance. “We will see a variety of special agreements, programs and road maps offered by NATO, but I doubt that Ukraine will be granted a membership in the alliance,” he says.

As regards the United Nations, Yermolayev says that it may have lost its steam, same as the League of Nations in the past. But this does not mean the world can do without global structures. Reforming the UN should not lead to its ruining, he says. The UN should be reformed to accommodate transnational structures. The UN will soon become a forum for regional, not national, structures, like the European Union, he adds.

The expert opines that in a new organization that will take over from the UN, delegations will be elected in national elections and will have the status of national governments. This will require changes in the Security Council and in the voting procedure.

Unfortunately, these issues are not debated in Ukraine and are left to diplomats. Ukraine does not initiate new approaches to the global system. It is an indication of the weakness of our elite, Yermolayev concludes.

Source of information: ZIK http://zik.com.ua/en/print/2008/08/27/147962