“The Biggest Threat to Ukraine is Us” (by Gritsenko)

Even though most MPs were enjoying their summer vacations, the Verkhovna Rada standing committee on national security and defense convened for an extraordinary meeting on Thursday to discuss the situation in and around Caucasus and ways to minimize negative impacts for Ukraine. The committee also invited representatives of different political forces and government officials. Journalists were not admitted.

On the eve of the meeting we approached the committee’s chairman Anatoliy Gritsenko with several questions of concern for most Ukrainians.

“This Is a War”

— For several days we watched with horror what was happening in Georgia. The West said shyly that Russia “exceeded the limits of the peacekeeping mission” and Russia accused Georgia of aggression against South Ossetia and “ethnic cleansing”. What do you call all this?

— We need to assess what has happened in order to localize the conflict and especially its consequences. It’s important to refrain from “black-and-white” judgments, because the situation is very complicated and the terms “aggressor” and “victim of aggression” don’t apply here.

It was clear after the Kosovo precedent that the frozen conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia would erupt sooner or later. We must admit that in South Ossetia the conflict entered the “hot phase” when President Saakashvili resorted to force. I think his step was wrong and fatal. Moreover, he took it without informing NATO, EU partners, or the Ukrainian President. A head of state has no right to make emotional decisions. He must remain composed under any circumstances, even if he is provoked.

I express my solidarity with the people of Georgia as objects of military aggression, but I disagree with the Georgian President’s decision.

One month ago I supported his powerful initiatives aimed at normalizing relations with Abkhazia. Saakashvili offered Abkhazia unprecedented privileges: the post of Vice President, a representation quota in the central bodies of government, exceptional terms for its economic development, and even the right of veto in the Georgian parliament. I see two reasons why his proposals were rejected: deep mutual distrust and Abkhazia’s reliance on Russia.

As to the consequences of this military conflict, the use of force produced a result totally different from what Saakashvili counted on. I think that now, despite all efforts for preserving territorial integrity, Georgia has de facto lost both republics – Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

— For ever?

— Firstly, in history one can never say “for ever”. We all remember the empires that believed they would exist forever. They broke up, and new states and new unions emerged… But I don’t see any objective possibilities for Tbilisi to regain constitutional control over Tskhinvali or Sukhumi in the next decade or two.

Secondly, I condemn the use of Grad volley missile launchers by the Georgian army. They fired at their own territory and their own citizens. The Grad launcher is not the right weapon to fight terrorists and guerillas. Instead, they should have used mobile groups or precision air strikes. Missile volleys destroy everything and leave no one alive in the target zone. Such a way to restore constitutional order is unacceptable. That’s why I believe that those officials who ordered volley missile firings must be prosecuted.

— What if the order was given personally by Saakashvili?

— I said: the official who gave the order – whoever he is.

As to Russia’s actions, I have two remarks. Firstly, Russian authorities ought to be the last to call for morality and lament about civilian victims, genocide, and “ethnic cleansing”. We remember too well how they shot their parliament and practically razed the Chechen capital Grozny to the ground.

Russian brass hats had better keep their moralisms to themselves. Authoritative opinions on that score can only be expressed by the leaders who managed to find peaceful solutions to separatist conflicts. The Czech and Slovak leaders have this moral right because they managed to divide the country peacefully. Ukraine also has this right because tanks did not crush separatist demonstrations in Crimea, because there was no bloodshed during the Orange Revolution, and because force was never used against separatists in Severodonetsk…

Secondly, Russia’s response was obviously inadequate by its power and scale. Russia violated international norms when its troops entered the territory of the sovereign state and launched offensive military operations against Georgia. It is anything but peacekeeping. It is a war.

Combat actions took place everywhere – in the air, in the sea, and on land. There were artillery and air strikes on the entire territory of Georgia and a blockade by Russian warships. There were also elements of info- and cyber-war.

Russia’s plan was quickly understood in another self-proclaimed republic – Abkhazia – and military action spread to that region as well. Abkhazian paramilitary units left the boundaries of Abkhazia and attacked Georgia with bombs, shells, and missiles. Then Russia additionally dispatched two divisions – one to each breakaway republic – that included armored, mechanized, artillery, airborne, and special task forces. They were joined by “volunteers” whose number was never reported.

“Russia Drove Itself into a Trap”

— Can we be sure today that the conflicting sides will not resume military actions? On one hand, President Saakashvili has announced Georgia’s secession from the CIS, denounced the agreements on CIS peacekeeping missions, and called Russian “peacekeepers” occupants. On the other hand, President Medvedev has announced completion of the military operation in Georgia but ordered his military commanders “to exterminate the aggressor in the event of Georgia’s new aggression”. How strong or fragile is today’s truce?

— The answer is not short. The causes of this conflict have two apects. First, they are deeply rooted in the past. Second, they are directed to the future. Why to the future? I can explain it figuratively: between the lines of operation orders given by Russian military commanders and the Russian Foreign Ministry’s press releases one can read the words “Kosovo” and “Great Russia”.

Wasn’t it known that the precedent of Kosovo was directly projected on South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and more than 150 other frozen conflicts? Russia was strongly against recognizing Kosovo’s independence, and I believe that Ukraine should not recognize the self-proclaimed republic, either. Manifestations of separatism may spread like wildfire across the globe. So the first factor was Russia’s decision to punish the West for recognizing Kosovo’s independence.

The second factor is “Great Russia”. The External Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (published under Medvedev’s presidency) states that “the influence of the West on global processes decreases” and that Russia’s potential increases. This is true. The Russian leaders must have reckoned that the time has come to regain the status of a superpower that would influence all global processes and all important regions, starting from the neighboring countries. The Baltic countries are an exception – they caught the last train to NATO and the EU. That’s why I say that the causes are deep-rooted and lasting.

And yet, could Russia have acted otherwise? Could it have won tactically by strengthening its positions in the Caucasus and not lost strategically by marring its image and undermining international trust? It could have but failed.

If Russia, in response to Saakashvili’s forcible action, had brought troops into South Ossetia to back up the peacekeepers there and then coerced him to cease fire but had not gone beyond the boundaries of South Ossetia, the assessment of its actions would have been different. And even though it would have been an encroachment on Georgia’s sovereignty, the world would have taken it calmly and Saakashvili would have faced the music. But Russia didn’t stop.

I must admit that the Russian troops acted very competently in professional terms: they struck at the second echelon – communications, logistics, infrastructure, etc. – to disable Georgian strikes. But apart from military logic there are norms of international law. There is a sovereign state with its civilian facilities strikes at which are inadmissible in any war. That’s where Russia overstepped the line and its further actions are aggression and disproportional use of force.

Russia drove itself into a trap. With every strike and every destroyed house that millions of families all over the world saw on TV its authority shrank. I think only Fidel Castro said a few words in support of Russia. Even Belarus expressed tight-lipped concern. The world shuddered at remembering the USSR in 1956, 1968, and 1979…

The Georgian army turned out to be weaker than it was believed to be, and not because of soldiers but because of commanders who acted unprofessionally.

It’s to early yet to make final conclusions, but some actions taken during the war looked at least strange. During a war the commander-in-chief should not organize mass rallies if bombs fall not far from the capital city. It also looks strange that the Rock Tunnel was not blocked and Russian tanks were let deeper into the country. There are many questions, but one thing is clear: the Georgian army failed to make the most of its potential.

Now let me say a few words about ceasefire. Having no consolidated support of EU countries and no mandate for a tougher position, French President Sarkozi accepted six principles of settlement written by the Kremlin. One of them was ceasefire. Saakashvili disagreed with some of them but had to accept them, too, because he was in no position to dictate his will. The main thing now is to stop the war and get the country back to peaceful life.

I think the Georgian and Russian troops will cease fire, but it’s hard to predict the Abkhazian leadership’s further steps. It wants to gain full control of the Kodor Gorge. There are many armed groups of “volunteers” in Abkhazia. They are out of control of authorities and nobody knows whose commands they will obey.

— Will the sides abide by the rest of the principles?

— Although with difficulties and problems, they will. I’d like to remark that one principle is not mentioned: Georgia’s territorial integrity. Despite efforts of many countries, including Ukraine and some member states of the EU and NATO, I don’t believe that Georgia will retain South Ossetia. I think the Kosovo precedent will repeat itself in the Caucasus: both South Ossetia and Abkhazia will proclaim independence and will be recognized by some countries. I don’t rule out that in the future they might want to join the Russian Federation.

As to Russia’s political actions, they look rather irrational, because even before the war it practically had both republics under control. All top positions there are occupied by Russian citizens who have always looked Moscow’s way and never reckoned with Tbilisi. And then, why does Russia want to enlarge its territory? It doesn’t have enough people to inhabit what it already has. Besides, why does Moscow need to bear additional expenses for restoring those two republics? Does it need additional problems?

This war is sure to have negative political and economic impacts, and not only on Georgia and Russia. Georgia will have to borrow billions of dollars to stabilize its economy and financial system. Armenia – Russia’s strategic partner – is also in a bind. 70 percent of Armenia’s foreign trade turnover goes via the Georgian port of Poti which is blocked by the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Besides, Russian natural gas is delivered to Armenia via Georgia.

Azerbaijan and the countries that depend on its energy resources also have problems. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan – the only alternative pipeline for transporting Caspian fuels which doesn’t run via Russia’s territory – is insecure. There will be a lot of direct and indirect impacts of this war, and Ukraine will feel them, too.

“Even the Strong Can Be Snubbed”

— As far as the international reaction is concerned, it was shamefully overcautious. Everybody talked about ceasefire but nobody gave a definite assessment of Russia’s behavior in terms of international law. On the day after Russia bombarded Gori, after European journalists were killed, and after the outrageous utterances by Russian top leaders Sarkozi said he “came to talk with the Russian friends about peace”. I guess we all know that the Russians might as well have broken into Tbilisi and captured Saakashvili. I’m sure that not a single tank or plane of the European Union or NATO would have budged to defend their partner state and its lawfully elected president. It looks like Russia can do whatever it likes on any territory of its “interests”. Do you see anyone or anything that can stop Russia?

— We are talking about Russia, but let’s take a broader look at this matter: is there any international organization that could firmly and quickly stop China, the United States, Great Britain, or France? Let me remind your readers that back in 1999 I dwelt on this matter in my ZN article “Does Ukraine Need a New Defense Doctrine?” It is still topical.

Let’s begin with the United Nations. It is the only global organization, but it is incapable in case a permanent member of the Security Council is involved in a military conflict – just because it has the right of veto. This means that the United Nations can’t do anything about it. By the way, in the event of a conflict around Ukraine one of the participant or interested sides would always be a permanent member of the Security Council. So it’s clear about the United Nations.

The OSCE is the only international organization that unites all European states plus the USA and Canada. With all my respect for the OSCE, it’s always been sluggish in making decisions, and in case of a military conflict the best it can provide is a mediatory or diplomatic mission or humanitarian aid.

The CIS and GUAM [Georgia-Ukraine-Azerbaijan-Moldova – A.B.] are not even worth mentioning.

As far as NATO or the European Union are concerned, they are sure to defend their members. They will act promptly and resolutely, and their leaderships will even interrupt their vacations to meet immediately. But if the object of aggression is a country that is not their member, all it can count on is consolidated political and diplomatic support. And, as we can see today, this support may not always be consolidated.

And should the situation demand military assistance with serious material and human resources and predictable human losses, I have very big doubts on that score. Few NATO or EU countries would be ready to respond adequately and defend a non-member country, even if its political vector is directed at membership in these organizations.

It is evident now that in this situation no one, including the United States, was ready or willing to render military assistance to Georgia, even though a Georgian peacekeeping brigade was on a mission to Iraq – shoulder to shoulder with NATO and EU peacekeepers.

— Does this mean that Russia is free to do whatever it likes?

— No, it’s not. The world order is imperfect and unjust and powerful states can afford to act aggressively, but we shouldn’t take it with fatalism. The strong have always ruled, but even the strong can be snubbed if their aggression goes too far. Remember how the world wars ended. Besides, today nations are interdependent as never before. Even the most powerful states are unable to exist on their won – without active economic exchange. They are vulnerable like the rest of the world. The awareness of this truth plus democratic values that make the third millennium different from the previous history may be a factor of restraint.

In this particular case Russia could have seized Tbilisi overnight and toppled Saakashvili, and no one would have stopped it, but the war wouldn’t have ended there and then.

“A Military Conflict between Ukraine and Russia Is Impossible”

— You know, watching TV reports from Gori razed by Russian bombs, I was thinking of Ukrainian towns… Yes, most Ukrainians would call it stuff and nonsense and say that Russia would never unleash a war against Ukraine, but just a few weeks ago Georgians couldn’t imagine Russian bombers over Gori. Do you think that Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine is possible?

— Don’t let’s frighten ourselves. We must think, draw conclusions, and act.

— OK, those Ukrainian experts and journalists who presumed that Ukraine would be next after Georgia must have been overfilled with emotions. But a number of Western journalists and analysts, including well-known British expert James Sherr and experienced U.S. diplomat Richard Holbrooke are sure that Russia, when waging a war against Georgia, was bearing in mind Ukraine.

— In spite of mistakes and faults in building relations between Ukraine and Russia, we have been able to avoid such conflicts. I think it will be so in the future, despite numerous differences in many areas.

Obviously, a conflict between Russia and Ukraine – the two largest countries in Europe – would be a catastrophe for the entire continent in all aspects: political, economical, ecological and energy. We should proceed from the following principal: conflict between Ukraine and Russia is impossible.

However, let’s overlook the concrete situation and focus on theory. Yes, a mighty state X might try to conquer a weaker state Y and it might succeed in the first stage of the war due to its military strength and element of surprise.

Nevertheless, it is not the state possessing more planes, warships and troops which wins the war, but the state which has a stronger “state power-nation-army” triangle and which is able to destroy such enemy’s triangle. The Chinese strategist Sun Tdzy taught this many centuries ago.

It is not just a mighty army that is necessary, but mostly – a strong state power supported by the entire nation. Concerning military aspects, there are a lot of possibilities for unequal actions. Shamil Basayev demonstrated that a state with just one battalion is able to discourage a big state with a two-million-army from continuing the war. I don’t approve of the actions of Basayev, but I give this example just because our readers are aware of it.

We should let the professional military-men develop their military schemes and require that our politicians manage the country effectively and responsibly since at the time being, there is no bigger threat to Ukraine than we ourselves.

— I am also not inclined to predict future fatality, but during the entire conflict between Russia and Georgia, Moscow talked to Kyiv in the same tone as to Tbilisi. Ukraine was accused of arming Georgia, of supporting one of the sides of the conflict and of interfering in the Black Sea Fleet’s actions. On the one hand, it is offensive to be silent about these accusations. On the other hand, it is obvious that Russia is trying to provoke Ukraine. How should Ukraine carry on a dialogue with Russia to keep its national dignity but not to aggravate its relations with the northern neighbor?

— How should we carry on a dialogue? Calmly, professionally and responsibly. To begin with, both sides should admit that Ukraine and Russia have never been sister nations and will never be. Relations between the states should be equitable and mutually beneficial.

I would like now to comment on the tone of Russia’s statements. Recent statements of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs resemble the ones in the 1950s and 60s and are full of diplomatic sarcasm: “Ukraine has armed Georgia inciting it to intervention and ethic purges.” It is a provocative, irresponsible and untrue statement. I asked Mrs. Loskutov, counselor of the Russian embassy to Ukraine (the ambassador is on vacation), a question: who exactly among the Ukrainian leaders incited intervention and ethic purges? Yushchenko? Tymoshenko? Yanukovych? Bohatyriova? Khinakh? Yekhanurov? Gritsenko? Who? – No one!

These statements reflect the Russians’ hostility and dissatisfaction accumulated over many years. Ideologists of the “Great Russia” don’t want to accept the right of the sovereign state to conduct its own policy and independently define its top tasks without approving them with the Kremlin.

— Are we able to stand up for at least our priorities in the issue with the Black Sea Fleet?

— I have already noted that our relations with Russia should be equitable and mutually beneficial. I think that we should immediately start implementing procedures stipulated in the basic agreement on the Black Sea Fleet of 1997–procedures which are for some reason not being discussed in the Cabinet of Ministers today.

This agreement says: beginning from 2008, Russia must pay Ukraine for the facilities rented by its fleet in accordance with Ukrainian law. Ukrainian law states that rented facilities must be appraised and Russia is to pay a market rent for them. Experts estimate this rent to be around USD 1 billion per year.

And what do we have today? Beginning from 1997, Russia has been writing off USD 97 million per year from the total Ukrainian debt to Russia for gas. This year or actually next year, we could transfer to a new system of rental payments, but only if we pay off our debt for gas. Today, our debt to Russia for gas is USD 1.3 billion.

In connection with this, I propose to the government, the Verkhovna Rada and the president that USD 1.3 billion be earmarked in the new amendments to the 2008 budget law in September to pay off the debt for gas to the Russian Federation. And after that, we will be able to charge market rent for the stationing of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation in Crimea.

Yes, we will lose money this year, but we will gain during the next nine years. And all these steps can be accomplished absolutely legally according to the bilateral agreements. Sevastopol and Crimea will receive additional resources for their development. No one will contend that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is supporting the region. We ourselves will be able to create dozens of times or hundreds of times more jobs in Crimea for USD 1 billion per year. If the government doesn’t include such an article in the amendments to the 2008 budget law, I won’t vote for this law even if my vote will be the 226th. This should be necessarily done: Russia has got a base for its fleet, and Ukraine should receive real compensation for the rented facilities and land.

Sharp-cornered triangle

— Are we strong enough to conduct our own independent policy?

— Strong foreign and defense policy can be conducted only when the state and the society are united, when the state power is strong and consolidated and when the army is battle-worthy – the triangle drawn by the Chinese strategist.

What is happening in our country today when the war between our two strategic partners has broken out and we are also being drawn into this conflict?

Leaders of the political forces introduced in the parliament (except for the Communist Party of Ukraine) haven’t declared their standpoints concerning the war. And it doesn’t really matter what their standpoints would be, it is important to have them. If our leaders don’t have standpoints, what single position of the Verkhovna Rada can we talk about? Should we wait until September?

We are in general aware of the position of the President of Ukraine regarding the war as it is expressed through the statements of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Unfortunately, the President didn’t convoke the National Security and Defense Council. He didn’t recall from vacations the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the ministers, the heads of the special services and law enforcement bodies as well as the heads of the intelligent service and frontier service and the head of his own Secretariat.

As a result, 24 hour work of all services coordinated at the interdepartmental level wasn’t organized, the flows of operative information were not regulated and a systematic analysis of all incoming information wasn’t conducted.

That’s why we hear today the statements and demands on behalf of our state which our officials are not able to carry out or be responsible for. The decision about not letting in the warships of the Russian Black Sea back to the base in Sevastopol is possible to execute; however, is the President of Ukraine ready to be responsible for the negative consequences of such a step?

And what about one more apex of the triangle – the army? The army is waiting for promised money and 8000 apartments which there is no chance of their receiving since the amendments to the state budget were not adopted. The army is using up today the supplies assigned for November and fuel bought for a price much higher than the price of fuel at the regular gas stations (according to the report of the Central Auditing Commission). And having all these problems, the army is helping people, rescuing them from floods and constructing bridges.

However, all the above is not important. The parade is what is more important. It doesn’t matter that the money for the parade was taken from the funds assigned for combat training; it doesn’t matter that tanks will break the asphalt with their tracks as there is no time to produce rubber covers; it doesn’t matter that Kyiv city administration didn’t permit the military planes to fly over the capital. This is not important. The parade should be carried out anyway even if, as the President says, there is a “second Chernobyl” and a war at the border of Ukraine.

— Nevertheless, we really need a mighty army today despite all sharp disputes in the mass media on whether Ukraine needs an army or not.

— Now, there will be fewer of those that doubt the necessity of the army. It is not necessary to invent anything new to create a strong army. First, it is necessary to implement the State program for the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the period up to 2011 drafted by the Defense Ministry, approved by the two governments (Tymoshenko’s and Yekhanurov’s) and supported by the members of the National Security and Defense Council.

The program is not fully implemented due to insufficient financing. The Prime Minister promised to allot 2% of GDP, and actually allotted a little more than 1% of GDP. This means that the program will fail; the army won’t be re-equipped with the modern military systems which our national military industry is now able to produce.

Second, it is necessary to implement the Program for conversion of the armed forces to the contract principals of formation. This program is also being upset. It is clear that without any extraordinary measures, Yushchenko won’t be able to fulfill his pre-election promise – to create a professional contract army before 2010.

Third, it is necessary to implement the Program for the development of the forces of special military operations. It was the last bill I signed in my post of Defense Minster in December 2007.

Special military forces are the most battle-worthy elements of our Armed Forces. Without any exaggeration, these forces are able to carry out strategically important tasks. They are the elite of the army. They are able to act on land, in the air and under the water. A group of four to five people can block any enemy’s headquarter, control point, airdrome or port; capture the missile starting emplacements. They are professionals ready to carry out asymmetric tasks inside the country and abroad to convince the aggressor (it doesn’t matter what country the aggressor is) that aggression against Ukraine is fraught with serious consequences and problems even in its own territory.

And this very important program failed. At the initial stage of the program when the budget of the program was approved in the Joint Staff of the Defense Ministry, only around UAH 160 million instead of UAH 300 million were allotted. And those 160 million were allotted on paper; actually there was even less money than that. This means that modern communication systems, armament and ammunition, parachutes and so on won’t be purchased.

Why? This is happening because our defense officials are unprofessional and irresponsible. Ukraine has got no Minister of Defense, just a minister of surplus military property. There is only one professional who actually understands the military principals among five deputies of the current Defense Minister of Ukraine, and he is given only minor tasks (maybe because he worked on my team?). No one from the leadership of the Defense Ministry told the President that it is more important to earmark money for the development of the special military forces than organize a parade (more than UAH 80 million) and construct just another, 18th, lyceum in Baturin (UAH 50 million this year for documentation and hundreds of millions next year for construction).

I don’t want to continue mentioning examples of inefficient actions or culpable omission of the state power in situations critical for the country. The main point is clear – the state power is not just weak, it doesn’t work; and when it works, this brings only negative results.

“The civilized world today is weak as never before”

— Are we the weakest country in this world?

— Today, we’re talking about the war between Russia and Georgia. However, believe me, there are other global processes in the world. The analysis of these processes shows that not such conflicts and not the threats of that kind will become a real challenge for the entire civilized world. I dare to contend that the civilized world today is weak as never before. And the existing threats are on the contrary strong as never before. I hope that when fighting against these threats, both Russia and Georgia will be on one side.

We can draw a line on the map starting at Northern Korea, through Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, the Near East, Sudan and finish at the Balkans. This would be not the only but the most dangerous conflict zone. It contains everything: frozen and burning conflicts; uncontrolled transnational terrorists and criminal organizations; tremendous financial resources; nuclear and other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, their technologies and elements; a huge number of the most dangerous regular destruction arms; world drug-business. There are a lot of troops from different countries there; the governments are inefficient there; new terrorists’ acts and new victims occur there every day.

It is very important that those criminal organizations do not follow democratic values and are ready for very decisive actions everywhere around the world. The threat is serious for any country of the world, even for very powerful ones. By the way, the USA tried to localize those threats by applying components of biological arms. As a result – millions of victims and nothing more. It is impossible to localize this threat by only one country’s efforts. And that is the USA! What can we say about Ukraine, Georgia, and Russia in this connection?

I contend that the entire civilized world is weak as never before. Why? I can give you the four most important in my opinion reasons for that.

First. During all elections (presidential or parliament), people in all developed and stable democratic countries vote approximately 50 to 50. Let’s look at Western Europe, the USA or even Ukraine. It is not possible to receive 80-90% of votes or full support there. This is possible only in authoritarian systems or in the countries experiencing a transition period. And in the entire civilized world – it is 50 to 50. What does this mean? This means that the political leadership of most countries is weak and vulnerable especially before the elections since in this situation, it is very hard to make important, responsible and unpopular decisions. We saw how in separate EU member states and NATO member states, for instance in Spain, peace-makers were withdrawn immediately after the elections – in two weeks. A similar situation is today in the USA.

Second. The next level is military-political or the level of defense ministers. It is the defense minister who should offer the political leaders of his or her state options of preliminary evaluated and thoroughly considered military-political decisions, be able to stand up for the most optimal options. And this level is not ready for such tasks in most countries of the world today. I worked as a defense minister for two years and ten months. When I was leaving the post, only five of 40 defense ministers, with which I had started to work, kept their posts: in Belarus, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Turkey and Denmark. In all other countries, the defense ministers changed and in some of them, even several times. Additionally, in many countries of the world, people from the spheres of medicine, finances, culture, and journalism are being appointed to the posts of the defense ministers.

Third. The next level is high-ranking military leadership or, as a rule, heads of joint staffs. In what countries of the world are these officials battled-tried generals experienced in military planning and combat operations? Just in a few: in the USA, Turkey, Israel, and Britain. And that’s all. All others read books written according to analysis of other wars. Thus, the leaders of most states can’t count on professional advice on the part of military-men in difficult situations.

The fourth reason is inefficiency of international organizations, their slow decision making process. Democratic principals also have weak features since most democratic alliances are built on principals of consensus, and a decision of, for example, NATO might be blocked by one single state.

I am sure that the leaders of democratic states must realize the weakness of separate countries and international organizations as soon as possible. Perhaps, it would be easier for them to do this today, after the conflict between Russia and Georgia when some weaknesses became obvious.

And what about Ukraine? Our leaders talk about coalition and elections… Serious regional and global problems are not interesting to them.

“I would recall Ukraine’s application for joining NATO Membership Action Plan”

— I can’t help asking you: should Ukraine accelerate the process of joining NATO after the Georgian events? Or maybe this is not important to us anymore? Are our chances of joining NATO Membership Action Plan in December bigger or smaller?

— I don’t consider this issue to be important today since we aren’t talking today about real NATO membership.

Obviously, none of the countries of the world can stand alone against a serious threat. The consolidation of efforts is also more profitable from an economical point of view. And it is clear that the only effective military union on the planet is NATO. There are no other ones. There is a line to join NATO, unlike the Tashkent Treaty, from which countries are leaving.

I think that the issue of joining the NATO Membership Action Plan is not important because we are able to implement it today not waiting for NATO to make a corresponding decision in December or in April or not make it at all.

If the Ukrainian power realizes the necessity to raise the economy, develop the ecological sphere, judicial system, and military system, it would be a membership action plan. When I was a defense minister in 2005, I understood that and introduced my initiative at the meeting with the defense ministers of the NATO member states. I said that Ukraine would like to develop its own membership action plan to raise the standards of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to meet NATO standards. “Fine, develop your own plan,” followed the answer.

Incidentally, the program “Ukrainian Break Through” is actually a membership action plan. I told Yuliya Tymoshenko that before her visit to Brussels: we shouldn’t be afraid of public opinion on this matter. The program contains points regarding a normal election system, the economy development, fighting with corruption – all things that we and not they need today. A strong battle-worthy army is necessary to us, not to the USA, as they have one.

I am sure that if in July 2006, when the meeting of the Commission on relations between Ukraine and NATO took place, there had been a coalition and new government in our country, we would certainly have received MAP. Then, at every meeting with the defense ministers of NATO member states, I reported on our new achievements. NATO knew that the Ukrainian Army understood the goals clearly and was gradually but successfully moving to meet them.

Our current government only talks about MAP but doesn’t do anything. The President could long ago have issued a decree which would oblige every minister to develop its part of MAP and implement it. However, Yushchenko didn’t do that.

That’s why a formal decision to grant or not grant Ukraine MAP in December is not of fundamental importance. I will say even more. If I were in Yushchenko’s place, I would recall Ukraine’s application to receive MAP from NATO headquarters. However, I would provide for its actual implementation without any NATO decisions.

— May the Georgian events encourage the alliance member states that had doubts about Ukraine to make a positive decision for Ukraine? Or do you think on the contrary, they will be frightened?

— Some will be encouraged and some will be frightened. It is hard to make any forecasts today. However, I think that there won’t be any principal changes in the NATO position regarding Ukraine.

I am not sure that the initiative to recall the application for receiving MAP will be supported by the public. However, I would concentrate on creating an effective system of state power and achieving concrete results. And if our citizens start to feel that their life is improving every day and week, they will respect the power. They will trust the power and support any strategic decisions without any referendums.

That’s why we shouldn’t pass our problems on Europe. We should implement our own MAP. I would like to note that many countries became NATO members without any MAP. There are European states which are not NATO members and are not implementing or going to implement any MAP. Nevertheless, due to their effective domestic and foreign policy, they might be accepted to the alliance any moment they apply.

“We shouldn’t exchange our values for prices”

— You wanted to talk about energy aspect…

— All EU and NATO member states provide their security collectively, however every country negotiates with Gazprom on its own. And here, some of them face with a real challenge, and some (like our government) – with temptation to exchange strategic goals and democratic values for cheap gas.

I don’t want Ukraine exchange values for prices. We did that several times. And we see the results now. There is no cheap gas there. The Russians will gain the rest of the price through illegal schemes and by controlling our economy.

We should fight and pay for our country’s independence. However, we know that gas lobby is very strong. Gas issue has become fatalistic (they say that the economy and the social sphere will collapse) since it is exactly the gas sphere which gives some businessmen opportunity to earn billions of dollars. And it is exactly the gas sphere which is a source of the biggest corruption no matter who the president or the prime minister is.

In my opinion, if our state power could conduct a rational and effective policy, the price of gas wouldn’t be really important. Yes, the price of gas will be much higher than today. However, let’s analyze this problem and see what our country has in this sphere that other countries don’t.

First. Our country has its own gas – more than 20 billion cubic meters per year. Most European countries don’t.

Second. We have a gas pipeline which will attract more attention after the conflict in Georgia. Most countries in Europe don’t have such a pipeline. And I would like to remind that this pipeline contributed to our gas balance additional 28 billion cubic meters of gas per year in 2004-2005 (for comparison: this year – only 9 billion).

Third. We have underground gas storage facilities. Most European countries don’t.

Fourth. We have coal which will be enough for approximately 400 years. Yes, the coal industry has got a lot of problems today, but still it has a potential for further development. Most European countries don’t have such coal fields.

Fifth. We have nuclear power industry. Most European countries don’t.

Sixth. We have hydro-power industry thanks to big rivers which most European countries don’t have.

Seventh (perhaps, the most important). Energy consumption per unit of manufacturing output in our country is 4-6 times higher than in developed European countries. This gives us a possibility to reduce gas consumption starting with the housing and utilities services and every apartment.

Market price of gas will be a good stimulus to reduce our energy consumption. None of the Cabinet’s decisions is more powerful stimulus than a high price of gas.

Additionally, we should more clearly define the role of our state. Our high-ranking officials, ministers and presidents shouldn’t grovel at somebody’s feet during negotiations seeking for low price of gas to suite people who increase their capitals by 5 or 10 billion dollars every year. Let these people pay market price for gas.

The state shouldn’t negotiate on the price of gas for business. Mittal Steel, Mr. Firtash, Mr. Akhmetov. Mr. Pinchuk and others sell their products at the world market for market prices. At the same time, they don’t pay their workers salaries according to the world standards. They are able to buy gas for market price. And the state should support the budget sphere and the municipal utilities sector as it should.

Remember, they said that if the price of gas is higher than USD 130, our economy will collapse? We are buying gas for USD 296 today and most enterprises are OK. Certainly, the state should support those enterprises that experience problems. It is possible to resolve these problems in a very short period of time – 3-4 years – and then, we can forget about gas issue. Not to mention the reserves we could have if we inspect the existing oil and gas fields, find out whose gas is in the underground storage facilities and develop new fields in the Black Sea shelf not with Vanco but with some serious investors.(ZERKALO NEDELI)

If we want to be a sovereign state, we should become stronger. And MAP will not be so important then.

Author: Anatoliy Gritsenko

Source of information: ZERKALO NEDELI
http://otherside.com.ua/news/detail.php?id=50066